Overview
Ryanair is an airline based in Ireland and is Europe’s largest low-fare airline. Led by CEO Michael O’Leary, Ryanair has continuously lowered average fair prices while maintaining profitability and a good balance sheet and while guaranteeing never to add a fuel surcharge to fare prices. Among a few of Ryanair’s notable achievements:- Ryanair carries the largest amount of international traffic in the world—73.5 million passengers this past year;
- Ryanair has the largest coverage in Europe with 42 bases, 155 airports, 26 countries, over 1,100 routes, and over 1,300 daily departures;
- Ryanair has the most on time flights, fewest lost bags, and fewest cancellations of flights;
- Ryanair has the lowest average fare price in Europe, charging $45 per ticket while the next closest low fare competitor charges an average of $66 and the flag carriers like British Airway and Lufthansa charging an average of $362 and $291 respectively;
How Does Ryanair Do It?
How is Ryanair able to charge so little for air fare and still make money? Good question.The Fleet
Ryanair has the newest fleet of aircraft in Europe with an average age of 2.9 years. A newer fleet means greater fuel efficiency. Also, the fleet consists of only one type of aircraft: 247 Boeing 737-800s. The purchase of aircraft from a single manufacturer enables Ryanair to limit the costs associated with personnel training, maintenance, and the purchase and storage of spare parts, as well as affording greater flexibility in the scheduling of crews and equipment.The interior of the planes have also been stripped down to the bare essentials. Seats don’t recline, the better to cram in more passengers. Window shades have been removed, so flight attendants don’t have to spend time resetting them between flights. Seat-back pockets have been ditched—one less place for clutter to accumulate.
Frequent, Point-to-Point Flights on Short-Haul Routes
Ryanair will not fly to airports where they can’t get a turnaround time (the time an aircraft spends at a gate loading and unloading passengers) of less than 25 minutes. With quick turnarounds, Ryanair pilots are able to fly the route a greater number of times per day. As for routes, Ryanair only does short-haul, point-to-point routes, which allows for a greater number of flights per day.Airports and Fees
Also, Ryanair selects the airports and routes it services on the basis of whether they are economically feasible. Ryanair will not fly (or is less likely to fly) to airports where they are forced to use expensive, union-member baggage handlers. Ryanair flies primarily to secondary and regional airports, which are generally less congested than major airports, have faster turnaround times, fewer terminal delays, and more competitive fees and costs. Ryanair will sometimes be able to work out a deal with an airport whereby the airport subsidizes some of Ryanair’s costs in exchange for Ryanair bringing passengers to the airport.Personnel Productivity
Ryanair makes great use of contractors—52% during 2008. Also, about 68% of Ryanair’s payroll is productivity-based.Web Check-In and Other Incentives
Ryanair passengers must check-in via the web and passengers must pay a fee to check luggage. Ryanair also does not use expensive baggage handling systems—passengers carry their luggage to the foot of the plane where they hand it directly to the baggage handler.Ancillary Revenues
Ryanair bombards users of its website and its passengers with advertisements. Ryanair sells food and other products to passengers during flights—scratch tickets are quite popular. Ryanair is a firm believer in passengers paying only for the service they require—if a passenger desires food during a flight, they can either buy it from Ryanair or bring it onto the plane. Ryanair also provides accommodation services, travel insurance, and car rentals through its website (Ryanair is one of the largest provider of customers to Hertz in Europe).Competitors
Other airlines in Europe continue to fail and there is continued consolidation which helps to reduce Ryanair’s competition. Unlike the bankruptcy system in America, most European laws favor creditors at the expense of debtors, so the majority of airlines that fail simply shut down and liquidate. Ryanair does not have to compete with marginal airlines that are on the life support of an American-style bankruptcy system.Investment Risks
Safety
Despite being Europe’s number one airline with the lowest-average fares, Ryanair does not skimp on safety. Ryanair has not had a single incident involving major injury to passengers or flight crew in its 20 plus year operating history. The fact that Ryanair has only one type of aircraft increases safety as mechanics are very familiar with the planes.Also, Ryanair’s average pay to employees for their fiscal 2010 was €45,948, which remains higher than most other major European airlines. Ryanair can attract comparably better employees with better compensation. Employees also get substantial time off—pilots and cabin crew have a duty time limit of 900 flight hours per annum, which means they are flying on average for less than 18 hours each week, spread across the 46 weeks of the year when they are not on holidays.
Fuel Costs
Fuel costs are a substantial portion of Ryanair’s operating expenses—approximately 34.6% and 44.1% of such expenses in fiscal years 2010 and 2009, respectively, after taking into account Ryanair’s fuel hedging activities. Management estimates that every $1.00 movement in the price of a metric ton of jet fuel will impact Ryanair’s net income by approximately €2.1 million, taking into account Ryanair’s hedging program for the 2011 fiscal year.Volcanoes
Regulatory authorities in Europe closed down airspace for an extended period of time during May 2010 due to the eruption of a volcano in Iceland which spewed volcanic ash into the air. There is always the possibility of another volcanic eruption. If this happens, expect the stock price of Ryanair to suffer as a result.Foreign Currency Risk
Ryanair does business only in Europe. Even if the company does well, an American investor might see little to no gains if the value of the Euro declines.Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary
Depending upon your point of view, Michael O’Leary could be an asset or a liability. He is a great asset because he has shown exceptional skill in growing Ryanair to be the best low-fare airline in Europe—he is absolutely relentless with trying to continually lower the average fare. O’Leary is also one of Ryanair’s best marketers.However, O’Leary is a vocal and incendiary figure and many people love to hate him. Here is a long list of some O’Leary quotes that demonstrates his personality:
- On ordering aircraft from Boeing: “The message to Boeing today is: ‘You keep building them, we’ll keep buying them’, and together both of us will kick the crap out of Airbus in Europe. We love Boeing. **** the French.”
- On not ordering more aircraft from Boeing: “Boeing had their chance. Eventually you lose interest, dealing with a bunch of idiots who can’t make a decision. They are a bunch of numpties out in Seattle.” unsecured loans
- On consultants: “I believe hiring consultants is an abdication by management of their responsibilities. If the consultant is so good at managing change, then why not hire him to run the company and do it himself? Every idiot who gets fired in the industry shows up as a consultant somewhere. I would shoot any consultant who came through my door.”
- On environmentalists: “We want to annoy the ******* whenever we can. The best thing you can do with environmentalists is shoot them. These headbangers want to make air travel the preserve of the rich. They are luddites marching us back to the 18th century. If preserving the environment means stopping poor people flying so the rich can fly, then screw it.”
- On overweight passengers: “Nobody wants to sit beside a really fat ****** on board. We have been frankly astonished at the number of customers who don’t only want to tax fat people but torture them.”
- On the in-flight experience: “Anyone who thinks Ryanair flights are some sort of bastion of sanctity where you can contemplate your navel is wrong. We already bombard you with as many in-flight announcements and trolleys as we can. Anyone who looks like sleeping, we wake them up to sell them things.”
- On low fares: “I don’t see why in 10 years’ time you wouldn’t fly people for free. Why don’t airports pay us for delivering the passengers to their shops?”
- On customer service: “People say the customer is always right, but you know what – they’re not. Sometimes they are wrong and they need to be told so.”
- On apologies: “Are we going to say sorry for our lack of customer service? Absolutely not.”
- On refunds: “We don’t want to hear your sob stories. What part of ‘no refund’ don’t you understand?”
- On Ryanair’s image: “One of the weaknesses of the company now is it is a bit cheap and cheerful and overly nasty, and that reflects my personality.”
- On cost-cutting: “We use our own biros and I tell the staff not to buy them, just pick them up from hotels, legal offices, wherever. That’s what I do. Recently I did an interview and I was sitting there with a hotel pen I’d nicked from somewhere. I was asked why and I said: ‘We at Ryanair have a policy of stealing hotel pens. We won’t pay for Bic biros as part of our obsession with low costs.”
- On employees: “MBA students come out with: “My staff is my most important asset.” Bull****. Staff is usually your biggest cost. We all employ some lazy ******* who needs a kick up the backside, but no one can bring themselves to admit it.” bad credit loans
- On the European Commission: “They are ******* Kim Il-Jungs (sic) in the Commission. You cannot have civil servants trying to design rules that make everything a level playing field. That’s called North ******* Korea, and everybody is starving there. The EU are pursuing some form of communist ******* Valhalla.”
Valuation
I currently value Ryanair at about $41.44 per ADR. I arrive at this valuation by estimating Ryanair will have free cash flow of about $877 million for their fiscal 2012, or about $2.96 free cash flow per ADR. Additionally, over the years Ryanair has traded at multiples to estimated free cash flows of about 7.5 to 39—the average multiple being 18 and the median being 14. Applying a multiple of just 14 to $2.96, we get a value of $41.44 per ADR.Another way to think about Ryanair is the free cash yield. At a current price of $28.35, the free cash flow yield is about 10.4%. There is also a possible special dividend coming up for a shareholder vote: a total of $633.9 million (or 500 million Euros) could be returned to shareholders, giving a one-time dividend yield of 7.5% if approved.










